Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 5W 3D 2L at Merkur-Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Grazer AK, 1.50 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 5–1 with Grazer AK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 54% | WSG Wattens 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.43 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.043 / defence 1.039 | WSG Wattens attack 1.060 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 30 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Grazer AK 1.43 / WSG Wattens 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.043 / def 1.039 | WSG Wattens attack 1.060 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK 4 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens part of?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Group - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 40% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Grazer AK and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Record (7 meetings): Grazer AK 2W | Draws 4 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grazer AK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.06x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.69
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.26 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 12W 22D 27L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
WSG Wattens's form line: 17W 18D 26L from 61 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.13 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 7W 7D 16L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.21 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 12W 22D 27L in their last 61 games (0.95 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or WSG Wattens away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.20 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Grazer AK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grazer AK
4
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 67%, WSG Wattens 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Grazer AK) and 60% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grazer AK's games and 57% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Grazer AK's matches and 60% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Grazer AK and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat WSG Wattens 4-0 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.43 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against WSG Wattens attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 40% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, WSG Wattens 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.95 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.