Grazer AK 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.40 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 86% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 80% and TSV Hartberg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | TSV Hartberg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.968 / defence 1.380 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.196. Data: 15 Grazer AK games / 37 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 43% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 86% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 43% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Grazer AK 1.68 / TSV Hartberg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.968 / def 1.380 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 43% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
Record (1 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.97x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.87x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.07
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
3.12
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.43 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 6D 7L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.13 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of TSV Hartberg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Grazer AK's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.86 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
3
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Grazer AK, 57% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Grazer AK) and 57% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Grazer AK's games and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Grazer AK's matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 0-3 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.68 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.97 / defence 1.38 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 43% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.80 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.