Grazer AK 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Austria Klagenfurt at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grazer AK stand at 0W 4D 3L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Merkur Arena this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grazer AK at 0.57 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 86% and Austria Klagenfurt 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 57% | Austria Klagenfurt 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.51 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.896 / defence 1.310 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.958 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.212. Data: 7 Grazer AK games / 28 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 37% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 100% | Austria Klagenfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 37% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Grazer AK 1.51 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.896 / def 1.310 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.958 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Austria Klagenfurt xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Grazer AK 0 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 37% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.90x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.90
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.52
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.52 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Klagenfurt by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grazer AK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.67 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Austria Klagenfurt have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 100%, Austria Klagenfurt at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Grazer AK) and 33% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 33%; Austria Klagenfurt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Grazer AK's games and 33% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Grazer AK's recent games and 33% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out Grazer AK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Grazer AK 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.51 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 37% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Klagenfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.