FC BW Linz 3-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
TSV Hartberg make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. TSV Hartberg are 1.60 PPG clear of FC BW Linz in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.22 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.916 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.399. Data: 1 FC BW Linz games / 23 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 30% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 41%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 30% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FC BW Linz 1.22 / TSV Hartberg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.916 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
FC BW Linz 3 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 30% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.86x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.92x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (1/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.42
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.70
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.47 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC BW Linz come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC BW Linz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 4-1 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC BW Linz's games and 100% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC BW Linz's matches and 100% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.22 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 1/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 30% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 41%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 100%, TSV Hartberg 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.