FC BW Linz 0-3 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grazer AK make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FC BW Linz (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Grazer AK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Grazer AK's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC BW Linz, 3 for Grazer AK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Grazer AK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Grazer AK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.033 / defence 1.188 | Grazer AK attack 0.861 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 45% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 28%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.57. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 50% | Grazer AK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 32 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 45% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC BW Linz 1.53 / Grazer AK 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.033 / def 1.188 | Grazer AK attack 0.861 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Grazer AK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK?
FC BW Linz 0 - 3 Grazer AK.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK part of?
FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK is a Relegation Group - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 45% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC BW Linz and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Grazer AK?
Record (5 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 1 | Grazer AK 3W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Grazer AK in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Grazer AK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.86x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.76
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.71
1.17
Grazer AK xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.17 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 19W 10D 34L from 63 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Grazer AK, meanwhile, have gone 13W 23D 27L across 63 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC BW Linz against 0.98 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 15W 1D 15L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC BW Linz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Grazer AK's away record stands at 4W 10D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.16 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Current Season
Grazer AK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 19W 10D 34L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 13W 23D 27L in their last 63 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Grazer AK away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.48 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Grazer AK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
4
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Grazer AK?
From 6 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 1, Grazer AK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC BW Linz 0-3 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Grazer AK?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 48%, Grazer AK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC BW Linz) and 55% (Grazer AK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 58% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC BW Linz's matches and 55% of Grazer AK's.
Do FC BW Linz and Grazer AK tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 0-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.53 xG and Grazer AK 1.17 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Grazer AK outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Grazer AK attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 45% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 28%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Grazer AK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grazer AK's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.06 PPG, Grazer AK 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.