FC BW Linz 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 41%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC BW Linz welcome Austria Vienna to Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Vienna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended FC BW Linz 0–4 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Austria Vienna 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 40% | Austria Vienna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.27 xG and Austria Vienna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.840 / defence 1.039 | Austria Vienna attack 0.857 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.138. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 20 games and Austria Vienna's last 42.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 41% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.42 | Draw 3.35 | Austria Vienna 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 41% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.27 / Austria Vienna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.840 / def 1.039 | Austria Vienna attack 0.857 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Austria Vienna xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
FC BW Linz 1 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 41% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.84) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 20 games and Austria Vienna's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.35
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.28
1.01
Austria Vienna xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.01 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 7D 9L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 7W 6D 7L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 10 home games (2W 6D 2L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 30%.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.20 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 4-0 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 November 2025: FC BW Linz 2-3 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Austria Vienna 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for FC BW Linz and 40% for Austria Vienna.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 30% of games; Austria Vienna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 30% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 40% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 80% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat FC BW Linz 1-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.27 xG and Austria Vienna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Austria Vienna attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 41% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 29%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 40%, Austria Vienna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.