Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.60 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 46% versus TSV Hartberg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.91 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.223 / defence 0.896 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.112 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.087. Data: 35 Austria Vienna games / 34 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | TSV Hartberg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | TSV Hartberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Vienna 1.91 / TSV Hartberg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.223 / def 0.896 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.112 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 56% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 3W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.27
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.99
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
32.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.08 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 13D 12L from 46 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 17L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.65 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 12W 9D 1L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.43 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.05 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, TSV Hartberg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Vienna and 68% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Vienna's games and 68% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Vienna's matches and 68% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.91 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 0.9 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 21%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.65 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.