Austria Vienna 2-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 5D 1L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sturm Graz (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Sturm Graz in 83%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading Data

Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 57% and Sturm Graz 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 29% | Sturm Graz 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.47 xG and Sturm Graz 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.912 / defence 1.066 | Sturm Graz attack 1.122 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.362. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Austria Vienna games / 14 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 34% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 41%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 71% | Sturm Graz 83% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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