Austria Vienna 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Match Analysis

Austria Vienna host SCR Altach at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 8 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Austria Vienna — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Austria Vienna have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

SCR Altach away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Vienna's games and 60% of SCR Altach's (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for SCR Altach and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Austria Vienna 1–1 SCR Altach — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 47% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 49% | SCR Altach 40%). Note also that SCR Altach surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.83 xG and SCR Altach 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.172 / defence 0.770 | SCR Altach attack 0.713 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.224. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Austria Vienna have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling SCR Altach's projected output down. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 37 games and SCR Altach's last 37.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 13%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.55 | Draw 4.41 | SCR Altach 7.95. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (65%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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