Austria Vienna 3-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Vienna host Ried at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Austria Vienna have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 1, Ried 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ried in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 68% and Ried 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 50% | Ried 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.51 xG and Ried 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.105 / defence 0.939 | Ried attack 0.592 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.562. Data: 30 Austria Vienna games / 30 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Ried 5.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 80% | Ried 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Austria Vienna 1.51 / Ried 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.105 / def 0.939 | Ried attack 0.592 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.562 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Ried xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Ried kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Ried?
Austria Vienna 3 - 0 Ried.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Ried part of?
Austria Vienna vs Ried is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Austria Vienna and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Ried?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Vienna 1W | Draws 0 | Ried 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Ried in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ried (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.10) and Ried's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.33
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.38
0.87
Ried xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
23.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.87 for Ried, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 14W 16D 10L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried's form line: 9W 15D 16L from 40 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.45 PPG, Ried on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (7W 9D 3L).
On the road, Ried have gone 2W 6D 11L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Ried in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Ried in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 14W 16D 10L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Ried have gone 9W 15D 16L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Ried away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.58 PPG; Ried away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Austria Vienna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Ried specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
0
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Ried?
From 6 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Ried have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Ried 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Ried?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Vienna at 79%, Ried at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Austria Vienna) and 26% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Ried in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Austria Vienna's games and 53% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 26% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Ried tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ried in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Ried 3-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.51 xG and Ried 0.87 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ried landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Ried attack 0.59 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 30% | Ried 20%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 50%, Ried 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.45 PPG, Ried 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.