Austria Vienna 0-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Austria Vienna welcome FC BW Linz to Generali Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 March 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Vienna — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna at Generali Arena this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC BW Linz have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Austria Vienna have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 2, FC BW Linz 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC BW Linz trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 35% versus FC BW Linz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 44% | FC BW Linz 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.92 xG and FC BW Linz 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.098 / defence 0.800 | FC BW Linz attack 0.709 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 22 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 69% | Draw 22% | FC BW Linz 9%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | FC BW Linz 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 30% | FC BW Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 69% | Draw 22% | FC BW Linz 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 38% | xG Austria Vienna 1.92 / FC BW Linz 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.098 / def 0.800 | FC BW Linz attack 0.709 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.57
FC BW Linz xG
38%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz part of?
Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 69% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Vienna 2W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.10) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.53
9%
10.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.50
0.57
FC BW Linz xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
10.82
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
39%
2.59
1%
73.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.57 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 9W 7D 7L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 4W 8D 11L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 0.96 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 games (1.48 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 4W 8D 11L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or FC BW Linz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.82 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Austria Vienna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
2
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, FC BW Linz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC BW Linz 2-3 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 27%, FC BW Linz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Austria Vienna) and 46% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 46% of games; FC BW Linz in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 46% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 46% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Arena, Relegation Round - 2, as Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.92 xG and FC BW Linz 0.57 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against FC BW Linz attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 69% | Draw 22% | FC BW Linz 9%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 44%, FC BW Linz 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.