Austria Lustenau 0-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 4 as Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Austria Lustenau) versus 0.90 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 2 for SCR Altach and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
SCR Altach trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 47% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 53% | SCR Altach 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.24 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.854 / defence 1.342 | SCR Altach attack 0.916 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Lustenau games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 40% | SCR Altach 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.24 / SCR Altach 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.854 / def 1.342 | SCR Altach attack 0.916 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SCR Altach xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 35% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
Record (6 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.35
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
SCR Altach xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.24 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 57 games, going 13W 16D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.88 PPG from 57 outings (10W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 0.96 PPG, SCR Altach on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 7W 5D 16L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (4W 10D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 16D 28L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 20D 27L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.93 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Austria Lustenau) and 54% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 36% of games; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 46% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 54% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Austria Lustenau 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Lustenau 0-1 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Relegation Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.24 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Lustenau fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.85 / defence 1.34 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 53%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 0.96 PPG, SCR Altach 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.