Austria Lustenau 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host Lask Linz at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.57 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.86 conceded. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 2W 0D 1L at Planet Pure Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lask Linz — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 2.10 PPG return is 0.53 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 1.57 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 71% and Lask Linz 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 71% | Lask Linz 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.061 / defence 1.448 | Lask Linz attack 1.205 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.460. Lask Linz's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 2.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Austria Lustenau games / 29 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 16% | Draw 19% | Lask Linz 66%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 6.25 | Draw 5.26 | Lask Linz 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 67% | Lask Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 16% | Draw 19% | Lask Linz 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.21 / Lask Linz 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.061 / def 1.448 | Lask Linz attack 1.205 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.55
Lask Linz xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 16% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 2.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
16%
6.41
19%
5.38
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.76
2.55
Lask Linz xG
6.41
16%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
8%
12.79
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
1%
82.01
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.55 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 2.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 2.00 PPG; Lask Linz away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2023, when Austria Lustenau 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Lustenau at 67%, Lask Linz at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Austria Lustenau and 33% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 33%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Austria Lustenau's games and 67% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 33% of Lask Linz's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 2.55 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.06 / defence 1.45 against Lask Linz attack 1.21 / defence 0.78, drawn from 7/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 16% | Draw 19% | Lask Linz 66%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 71%, Lask Linz 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.