Austria Lustenau 1-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host FC BW Linz at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Austria Lustenau at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC BW Linz stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC BW Linz away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Austria Lustenau at 1.10 PPG versus FC BW Linz's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 0 for FC BW Linz and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 33% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 40% | FC BW Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.49 xG and FC BW Linz 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.878 / defence 1.281 | FC BW Linz attack 0.746 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Austria Lustenau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Austria Lustenau games / 22 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 48% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | FC BW Linz 4.35. Austria Lustenau hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Lustenau as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 40% | FC BW Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 48% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.49 / FC BW Linz 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.878 / def 1.281 | FC BW Linz attack 0.746 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC BW Linz xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 48% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Lustenau 1W | Draws 2 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.88) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.48
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.46
0.97
FC BW Linz xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
19.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 0.97 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau's recent record stands at 3W 8D 19L from 30 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
FC BW Linz, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 12L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC BW Linz by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Lustenau have managed 2W 0D 13L from 15 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC BW Linz's away record stands at 3W 3D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
FC BW Linz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 8D 19L in their last 30 games (0.57 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or FC BW Linz away?
FC BW Linz's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.40 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
0
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, FC BW Linz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 33%, FC BW Linz 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Lustenau) and 47% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 53% of games; FC BW Linz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 47% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 47% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Lustenau edge out FC BW Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat FC BW Linz 1-0 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.49 xG and FC BW Linz 0.97 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against FC BW Linz attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 48% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 40%, FC BW Linz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC BW Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Austria Lustenau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.