Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees WSG Wattens travel to Wörthersee Stadion to take on Austria Klagenfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 0W 5D 0L from 5 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Austria Klagenfurt) versus 1.00 (WSG Wattens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 80% and WSG Wattens 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Austria Klagenfurt 60% | WSG Wattens 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.78 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.176 / defence 1.331 | WSG Wattens attack 0.901 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.253. Data: 5 Austria Klagenfurt games / 5 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Klagenfurt at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 80% | WSG Wattens 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.78 / WSG Wattens 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.176 / def 1.331 | WSG Wattens attack 0.901 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.50
WSG Wattens xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 41% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 0W-5D-0L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (1.18) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.46
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.28
1.50
WSG Wattens xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.50 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Klagenfurt's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 0L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; WSG Wattens in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 0W 5D 0L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
WSG Wattens have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when WSG Wattens won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 1-4 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Klagenfurt at 80%, WSG Wattens at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 20% (WSG Wattens).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 80% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 20% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.78 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.18 / defence 1.33 against WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 41% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 30%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 60%, WSG Wattens 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.