Austria Klagenfurt 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host TSV Hartberg at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at 28 Black Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, TSV Hartberg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 67% and TSV Hartberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 65% | TSV Hartberg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.952 / defence 1.079 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.757 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.407. Data: 42 Austria Klagenfurt games / 42 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 / TSV Hartberg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.952 / def 1.079 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.757 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 45% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 1W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.89
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.64
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.15 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 15D 21L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.96 PPG from 52 outings (12W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.21 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.21 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 14D 26L in their last 52 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.08 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 62%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 54% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 27% of games; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 45% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 65%, TSV Hartberg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.