Austria Klagenfurt 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wörthersee Stadion plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt at Wörthersee Stadion this season: 3W 5D 0L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 1D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Austria Klagenfurt, 1.40 for Sturm Graz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant games, Sturm Graz in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 71% and Sturm Graz 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 53% | Sturm Graz 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.57 xG and Sturm Graz 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.018 / defence 1.140 | Sturm Graz attack 1.014 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.271. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Austria Klagenfurt games / 17 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Klagenfurt at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 88% | Sturm Graz 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.57 / Sturm Graz 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.018 / def 1.140 | Sturm Graz attack 1.014 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 40% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.01x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.02
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.04
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.47 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 7D 4L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.65 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (3W 5D 0L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Sturm Graz away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.75 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Austria Klagenfurt, 75% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Austria Klagenfurt and 75% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 75% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 75% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-3 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.57 xG and Sturm Graz 1.47 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 53%, Sturm Graz 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.47 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.