Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to 28 Black Arena to face Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's home record at 28 Black Arena: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 28 Black Arena this season.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 0.70 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Red Bull Salzburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Austria Klagenfurt lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 70% versus Red Bull Salzburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 64% | Red Bull Salzburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.006 / defence 1.165 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.345 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.613. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 2.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Austria Klagenfurt games / 37 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 15% | Draw 19% | Red Bull Salzburg 66%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 15% | Draw 19% | Red Bull Salzburg 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.53 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.006 / def 1.165 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.345 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.613 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
2.53
Red Bull Salzburg xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 15% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 1W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (1.01) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.34x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.53.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
15%
6.77
19%
5.28
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.69
2.53
Red Bull Salzburg xG
6.77
15%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
8%
12.53
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
1%
84.77
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 2.53 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 15D 18L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 36W 8D 3L from 47 games, 2.47 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 17W 3D 3L from 23 away games — 2.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.32 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 36W 8D 3L in their last 47 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.09 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 70%, Red Bull Salzburg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Austria Klagenfurt and 65% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 65% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Austria Klagenfurt 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.53 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.34 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 15% | Draw 19% | Red Bull Salzburg 66%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 64%, Red Bull Salzburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.