Austria Klagenfurt 1-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 36%, yet in-form Austria Klagenfurt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Austria Klagenfurt's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 home games and Austria Lustenau's last 10 away games) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Lustenau in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Austria Klagenfurt, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Austria Klagenfurt 2–4 Austria Lustenau — a Austria Lustenau win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 64% and Austria Lustenau 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 69% | Austria Lustenau 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.978 / defence 1.136 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.813 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.628. Data: built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 29 games and Austria Lustenau's last 29.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 33% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 36%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.05 | Draw 3.18 | Austria Lustenau 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Klagenfurt (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 home games and Austria Lustenau's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Klagenfurt 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Lustenau 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 33% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 / Austria Lustenau 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.978 / def 1.136 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.813 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Austria Lustenau xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau FAQs
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 33% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.98x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.81x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 29 games and Austria Lustenau's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.18
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.94
1.50
Austria Lustenau xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.50 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 9D 17L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 11W 12D 16L from 39 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.15 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.05 PPG from their last 19 home games (5W 5D 9L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 7D 7L from their last 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.41 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt (Home) vs Austria Lustenau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau Form FAQs
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 9D 17L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.05 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Austria Klagenfurt have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
0
Draws
1
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Austria Lustenau 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 53%, Austria Lustenau 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 53% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 32% of games; Austria Lustenau in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Lustenau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 58% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 53% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Lustenau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 63% of Austria Lustenau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Austria Lustenau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.44 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.50 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Lustenau landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 33% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 36%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Austria Klagenfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 69%, Austria Lustenau 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.23 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.