Admira Wacker 1-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Admira Wacker host WSG Wattens at BSFZ-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BSFZ-Arena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Admira Wacker 1.30 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Admira Wacker have won 0, WSG Wattens 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Admira Wacker 62% versus WSG Wattens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 48% | WSG Wattens 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.779 / defence 1.306 | WSG Wattens attack 0.856 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Admira Wacker games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 41%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | WSG Wattens 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Admira Wacker 50% | WSG Wattens 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Admira Wacker 1.23 / WSG Wattens 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.779 / def 1.306 | WSG Wattens attack 0.856 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.39
WSG Wattens xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Admira Wacker 1 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens part of?
Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 33% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
Record (3 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 2 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.81
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
WSG Wattens xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.39 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 6W 12D 11L from 29 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 11L across 29 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.03 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 5W 2D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 0.86 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Admira Wacker's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
3
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 50%, WSG Wattens 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Admira Wacker) and 71% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 29% of games; WSG Wattens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 43% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Admira Wacker's matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens finished level at 1-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Relegation Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.78 / defence 1.31 against WSG Wattens attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 33% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 41%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 48%, WSG Wattens 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.03 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.