Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Khorfakkan (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Al Urooba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al Urooba at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 February 2025 at 13:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Urooba — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 0D 7L from 7 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Khorfakkan have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Urooba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Al Urooba in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 73% and Al Urooba 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 60% | Al Urooba 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.29 xG and Al Urooba 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.947 / defence 1.078 | Al Urooba attack 0.528 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.455. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Khorfakkan games / 15 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 70% | Draw 19% | Al Urooba 12%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Al Urooba 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 60% | Al Urooba 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Feb 2025, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 70% | Draw 19% | Al Urooba 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 51% | xG Khorfakkan 2.29 / Al Urooba 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.947 / def 1.078 | Al Urooba attack 0.528 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Urooba xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba kicked off at 13:25 on Thursday 13 February 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Khorfakkan 3 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 70% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
Record (3 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 1 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al Urooba's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.37
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.11
0.83
Al Urooba xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
85.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.83 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.20 PPG from 15 outings (1W 0D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.00 points per game from 7 outings (0W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.87 scored and 2.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 14L in their last 15 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Urooba away?
Khorfakkan's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 0.86 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Khorfakkan won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2025, when Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 57%, Al Urooba 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Khorfakkan) and 71% (Al Urooba).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 43% of games; Al Urooba in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 29% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 71% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Urooba 3-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.29 xG and Al Urooba 0.83 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Al Urooba attack 0.53 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 70% | Draw 19% | Al Urooba 12%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 60%, Al Urooba 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Urooba's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.