Khorfakkan 4-3 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Khorfakkan welcome Al-Dhafra to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 November 2022 at 12:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.80 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Khorfakkan, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–4 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 54% versus Al-Dhafra 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 66% | Al-Dhafra 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.34 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.883 / defence 0.841 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.720 / defence 1.740. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.322. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.740 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Khorfakkan games / 35 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 72% | Draw 17% | Al-Dhafra 11%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Dhafra 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 72% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Dhafra 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 72% | Draw 17% | Al-Dhafra 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG Khorfakkan 2.34 / Al-Dhafra 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.883 / def 0.841 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.720 / def 1.740 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Dhafra xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 12:45 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan 4 - 3 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 72% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Record (2 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.88x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.74x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.83
11%
9.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.14
0.80
Al-Dhafra xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
9.00
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
10%
10.35
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
93.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.80 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 10W 6D 19L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 21L across 35 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.03 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 8W 3D 7L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 2W 3D 13L across 18 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.94 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 6W 8D 21L in their last 35 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 4, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 2-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 44%, Al-Dhafra 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Khorfakkan) and 50% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Dhafra in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 39% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Dhafra 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 4-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.34 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.80 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.72 / defence 1.74, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 72% | Draw 17% | Al-Dhafra 11%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 66%, Al-Dhafra 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.03 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.