Khorfakkan 1-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Ain at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al Ain at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 0.68 xG and Al Ain 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Ain attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.694 / away 1.638. Data: 0 Khorfakkan games / 0 Al Ain games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 16% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 60%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Al Ain 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 16% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Khorfakkan 0.68 / Al Ain 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Ain attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.694 / away 1.638 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Ain xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Ain kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Ain kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Khorfakkan 1 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Ain part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 16% chance of winning, Al Ain a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Ain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Ain in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
16%
6.41
25%
4.04
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.28
1.60
Al Ain xG
6.41
16%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
3%
31.76
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.60 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Pre-Season
Al Ain
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al Ain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2024, when Al Ain won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
9
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al Ain have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-3 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Khorfakkan 1-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 0.68 xG and Al Ain 1.60 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Ain attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 16% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 60%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.