Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ajman at 39%, yet in-form Khorfakkan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khorfakkan vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Khorfakkan at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Ajman — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Ajman have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Khorfakkan are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Khorfakkan have won 2, Ajman 4, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Khorfakkan 2–1 Ajman — a Khorfakkan win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 61% versus Ajman 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 61% | Ajman 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.27 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / defence 1.069 | Ajman attack 0.913 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.394. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 41 games and Ajman's last 41.

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 26% | Ajman 39%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.87 | Draw 3.82 | Ajman 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 80% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights