Baniyas SC 4-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Baniyas SC take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 December 2021, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 1W 4D 1L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 46% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baniyas SC 46% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 0.96 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.921 / defence 1.116 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.627 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.231. Data: 11 Baniyas SC games / 11 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 33% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Baniyas SC 0.96 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.921 / def 1.116 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.627 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 30 December 2021 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Baniyas SC 4 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 33% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 27% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
41%
2.47
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
1.83
0.86
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.47
41%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 0.86 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.09 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.17 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baniyas SC 33% BTTS, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Baniyas SC and 0% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 50% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 33% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baniyas SC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 0.96 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.63 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 41% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Baniyas SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 46%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.