Baniyas SC 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 43%, yet in-form Al Nasr provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Nasr have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 48% versus Al Nasr 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 45% | Al Nasr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.23 xG and Al Nasr 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.720 / defence 0.894 | Al Nasr attack 0.785 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.213. Baniyas SC's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Baniyas SC games / 31 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 33% | Al Nasr 24%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Al Nasr 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Nasr (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Nasr 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 33% | Al Nasr 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Baniyas SC 1.23 / Al Nasr 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.720 / def 0.894 | Al Nasr attack 0.785 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al Nasr xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 43% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Record (2 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.72x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.79x) against Baniyas SC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.03
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.85
Al Nasr xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 0.85 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 9W 8D 14L from 31 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 13L across 31 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Baniyas SC against 1.23 for Al Nasr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 4W 6D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Nasr away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 4-1 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Al Nasr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Nasr 0-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 44%, Al Nasr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Baniyas SC) and 75% (Al Nasr).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 62% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 75% of Al Nasr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.23 xG and Al Nasr 0.85 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.72 / defence 0.89 against Al Nasr attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 33% | Al Nasr 24%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 45%, Al Nasr 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.13 PPG, Al Nasr 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.