Baniyas SC 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Baniyas SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 0.90 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baniyas SC, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 52% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 52% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.34 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.849 / defence 1.243 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.770 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.370. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Baniyas SC games / 25 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Baniyas SC 1.34 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.849 / def 1.243 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.770 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.83
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.31
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.31 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 10L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 42%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Baniyas SC) and 42% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 42% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.34 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.77 / defence 1.26, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 52%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.