Al Wahda FC 1-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Al Nahyan Stadium to face Al Wahda FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC at Al Nahyan Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.40 for Ajman. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Ajman in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Ajman and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ajman — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 60% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 60% | Ajman 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.22 xG and Ajman 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.281 / defence 0.967 | Ajman attack 1.121 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.766. Al Wahda FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Al Wahda FC games / 43 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 20% | Ajman 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | Ajman 2.94. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 90% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 20% | Ajman 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.22 / Ajman 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.281 / def 0.967 | Ajman attack 1.121 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.766 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Ajman xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 46% chance of winning, Ajman a 34% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wahda FC 3W | Draws 1 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Ajman in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (1.12x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
46%
2.19
20%
4.96
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
4.13
1.91
Ajman xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.16
Clean Sheet
15%
6.78
11%
9.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
4%
26.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.91 for Ajman, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 25W 10D 8L from 43 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 16L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 10W 8D 3L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 9W 6D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.53 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ajman in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 25W 10D 8L in their last 43 games (1.98 PPG), while Ajman have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Ajman away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Ajman away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ajman in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al Wahda FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Ajman have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Ajman?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Al Wahda FC, 62% for Ajman — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Wahda FC and 57% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wahda FC's games and 62% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 57% of Ajman's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajman in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.22 xG and Ajman 1.91 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Ajman attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 20% | Ajman 34%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.