Al Nasr 2-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024, 15:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 5W 2D 3L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 2 for Khorfakkan and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Khorfakkan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 48% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 50% | Khorfakkan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.96 xG and Khorfakkan 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.965 / defence 0.855 | Khorfakkan attack 0.911 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.690. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Al Nasr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al Nasr games / 48 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 3.85. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 50% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Nasr 1.96 / Khorfakkan 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.965 / def 0.855 | Khorfakkan attack 0.911 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Khorfakkan xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 52% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.96) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.55
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.27
1.32
Khorfakkan xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
4%
27.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.32 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 17W 11D 20L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 11D 25L from 48 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 8D 13L from 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.23 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.61 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 39%, Khorfakkan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Nasr) and 65% (Khorfakkan).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 65% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Nasr's recent games and 65% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Khorfakkan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.96 xG and Khorfakkan 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Khorfakkan attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 50%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.