Al-Jazira 0-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Jazira face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
Baniyas SC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Jazira's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Jazira have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Baniyas SC managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Jazira a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 72% and Baniyas SC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 69% | Baniyas SC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.07 xG and Baniyas SC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.989 / defence 0.859 | Baniyas SC attack 0.767 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.421. Data: 39 Al-Jazira games / 39 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Baniyas SC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 50% | Baniyas SC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Jazira 2.07 / Baniyas SC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.989 / def 0.859 | Baniyas SC attack 0.767 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Baniyas SC xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira 0 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 63% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Jazira 4W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (0.99) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.77x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.66
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.00
0.94
Baniyas SC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
50.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 0.94 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 15W 11D 13L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 10W 8D 21L from 39 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 13L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.21 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.68 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 74%, Baniyas SC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Jazira and 58% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Jazira's games and 53% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Jazira's matches and 58% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Jazira 0-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.07 xG and Baniyas SC 0.94 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Baniyas SC attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 16%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 69%, Baniyas SC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.