Al-Jazira 1-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Urooba make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Jazira (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Jazira have posted 3W 0D 0L at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Urooba have collected 0.60 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 2L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Jazira. A 1.40 PPG lead over Al Urooba (2.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al Urooba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Jazira — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 60% and Al Urooba 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 60% | Al Urooba 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.95 xG and Al Urooba 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.219 / defence 1.133 | Al Urooba attack 0.755 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.175. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Al-Jazira games / 5 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 56% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Al Urooba 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 67% | Al Urooba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 56% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Jazira 1.95 / Al Urooba 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.219 / def 1.133 | Al Urooba attack 0.755 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Urooba xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba?
Al-Jazira 1 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 56% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Urooba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Urooba in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.22) and Al Urooba's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.76x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.60
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.95
1.00
Al Urooba xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
44.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.00 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Urooba, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 2L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Urooba in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Al Urooba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Al-Jazira or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Al Urooba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Al Urooba 4-5 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Urooba?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 60%, Al Urooba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Jazira and 60% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Urooba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Urooba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Jazira's games and 60% of Al Urooba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Jazira's matches and 60% of Al Urooba's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Urooba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Urooba 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.95 xG and Al Urooba 1.00 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al Urooba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.22 / defence 1.13 against Al Urooba attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 56% | Draw 28% | Al Urooba 16%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 60%, Al Urooba 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Urooba's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Urooba managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.