Al-Jazira 2-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Dhafra make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 20 August 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 0.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.694 / away 1.638. Data: 0 Al-Jazira games / 0 Al-Dhafra games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 60%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Dhafra 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Dhafra (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Dhafra are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Jazira 0.68 / Al-Dhafra 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.694 / away 1.638 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Dhafra xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra?
Al-Jazira 2 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 16% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al-Dhafra's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.85x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
16%
6.41
25%
4.04
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.28
1.60
Al-Dhafra xG
6.41
16%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
3%
31.76
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.60 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Dhafra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Pre-Season
Al-Dhafra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 0.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.60 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 60%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al-Jazira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.