Al-Dhafra 1-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Dhafra face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Wahda FC in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Dhafra have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Wahda FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Al Wahda FC, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Al-Dhafra 2–5 Al Wahda FC — a Al Wahda FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 5.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 52% versus Al Wahda FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 56% | Al Wahda FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.74 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.643 / defence 1.236 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.911 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Al-Dhafra's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Al Wahda FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Dhafra's projected output down. Al-Dhafra's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Wahda FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Dhafra's last 25 games and Al Wahda FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 15% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 6.51 | Draw 3.63 | Al Wahda FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (57%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Dhafra 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Wahda FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 15% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Al-Dhafra 0.74 / Al Wahda FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.643 / def 1.236 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.911 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al Wahda FC xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC FAQs
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 15% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.64) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.91x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Al-Dhafra's last 25 games and Al Wahda FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
15%
6.51
28%
3.63
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.36
1.62
Al Wahda FC xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
33.04
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.62 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 4D 16L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (10W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 4W 0D 8L across their last 12 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 12 away games (4W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.52 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Dhafra (Home) vs Al Wahda FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 4D 16L in their last 25 games (0.76 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 10W 10D 5L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won Al Wahda FC 5-2 Al-Dhafra on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
6
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 50%, Al Wahda FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Dhafra) and 25% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 33%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 25% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 67% of Al Wahda FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Dhafra defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.74 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.62 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.64 / defence 1.24 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 25/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 15% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 57%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 56%, Al Wahda FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.