Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 2W 4D 4L at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al Ain arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Dhafra 0W, Al Ain 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al Ain winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Ain — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 52% versus Al Ain 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 48% | Al Ain 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.07 xG and Al Ain 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.964 / defence 1.122 | Al Ain attack 1.025 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.263. Data: 21 Al-Dhafra games / 21 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 2.17. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 60% | Al Ain 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.07 / Al Ain 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.964 / def 1.122 | Al Ain attack 1.025 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al Ain xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 28% chance of winning, Al Ain a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 1W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Al Ain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.96) and Al Ain's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.02x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.81
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.52
1.45
Al Ain xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.45 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 7D 11L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Ain sit at 2.48 PPG from 21 outings (16W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.72 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Ain have taken 2.30 points per game from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.14 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 16W 4D 1L in their last 21 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al Ain in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Ain go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 7-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
6
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Al Ain have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Ain 5-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 60%, Al Ain 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Dhafra) and 40% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 50%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 40% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 40% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.07 xG and Al Ain 1.45 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Al Ain attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 46%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 48%, Al Ain 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Ain's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.