Ajman 0-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.40 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajman register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ajman have won 1, Khorfakkan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 4–2 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Khorfakkan trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 48% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 55% | Khorfakkan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.034 / defence 1.045 | Khorfakkan attack 0.822 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.237. Data: 31 Ajman games / 31 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 57% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 18%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Khorfakkan 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ajman (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 60% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 57% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Ajman 1.98 / Khorfakkan 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.034 / def 1.045 | Khorfakkan attack 0.822 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Ajman (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 0 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 57% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.90
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.04
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
40.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Ajman and 1.06 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 12W 6D 13L from 31 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 17L across 31 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.35 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 2D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.39 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 12W 6D 13L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.33 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 60%, Khorfakkan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Ajman and 80% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 27% of games; Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ajman's games and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ajman's matches and 80% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajman's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman and Khorfakkan finished level at 0-0 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.98 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajman fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Khorfakkan attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 57% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 18%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 55%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.35 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.