Ajman 1-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Baniyas SC in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Ajman's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ajman have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Baniyas SC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baniyas SC away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Ajman's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Ajman, 1 for Baniyas SC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2023, ended Ajman 3–2 Baniyas SC — a Ajman win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 60% and Baniyas SC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 56% | Baniyas SC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.46 xG and Baniyas SC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.996 / defence 0.989 | Baniyas SC attack 0.630 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.644. Baniyas SC's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Ajman's last 50 games and Baniyas SC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Ajman 45% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.22 | Draw 3.30 | Baniyas SC 4.07. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ajman 40% (last 10 home games) | Baniyas SC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 45% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Ajman 1.46 / Baniyas SC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.996 / def 0.989 | Baniyas SC attack 0.630 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.644 • Poisson stance: Ajman (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Baniyas SC FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Ajman vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Baniyas SC?
Ajman 1 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Ajman vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Baniyas SC part of?
Ajman vs Baniyas SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 45% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ajman and Baniyas SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ajman's attack rating (1.00) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.63x) against Ajman's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 50 games and Baniyas SC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.30
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.48
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Baniyas SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ajman and 1.02 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 14D 16L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 9D 28L from 50 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Ajman are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 25 home games (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 4D 15L from their last 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Baniyas SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Baniyas SC Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 9D 28L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Baniyas SC away?
Ajman's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.44 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Ajman and Baniyas SC, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 3D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
4
Draws
3
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Baniyas SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Baniyas SC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Baniyas SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Ajman 1-1 Baniyas SC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 60%, Baniyas SC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ajman and 68% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Baniyas SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Baniyas SC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ajman's games and 60% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Baniyas SC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ajman's matches and 68% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Ajman and Baniyas SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Ajman's recent matches and 80% of Baniyas SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Baniyas SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Ajman and Baniyas SC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.46 xG and Baniyas SC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Baniyas SC attack 0.63 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 45% | Draw 30% | Baniyas SC 25%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Baniyas SC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.