Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 15:05 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Jazira (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Ajman 3W, Al-Jazira 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Al-Jazira 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 49% | Al-Jazira 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.25 xG and Al-Jazira 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.846 / defence 1.073 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.446. Data: 49 Ajman games / 49 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Jazira 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Ajman 1.25 / Al-Jazira 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.846 / def 1.073 | Al-Jazira attack 0.995 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Jazira xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:05 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Ajman 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Jazira part of?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 31% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ajman and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Record (8 meetings): Ajman 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.99x) against Ajman's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
31%
3.25
25%
4.00
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.79
1.54
Al-Jazira xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ajman and 1.54 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 7D 25L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Ajman against 1.57 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (9W 4D 11L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 9W 8D 7L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.73 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
3
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ajman, 71% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ajman) and 58% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ajman's games and 71% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ajman's matches and 58% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Ajman and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.25 xG and Al-Jazira 1.54 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Al-Jazira attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Jazira 44%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 49%, Al-Jazira 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.18 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.