SK Poltava 0-4 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Poltava vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Poltava have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 1D 7L at Zirka Stadium — 0.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SK Poltava 0W, Karpaty 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Poltava — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Karpaty — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 58% versus Karpaty 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 68% | Karpaty 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.652 / defence 1.493 | Karpaty attack 0.887 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.201. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 SK Poltava games / 49 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Karpaty 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Karpaty (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 44% | Karpaty 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG SK Poltava 0.83 / Karpaty 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.652 / def 1.493 | Karpaty attack 0.887 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Karpaty xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs Karpaty kick off?
SK Poltava vs Karpaty kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
SK Poltava 0 - 4 Karpaty.
Where is SK Poltava vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Karpaty part of?
SK Poltava vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 20% chance of winning, Karpaty a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SK Poltava and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Karpaty?
Record (1 meetings): SK Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Karpaty 0W.
What form are SK Poltava and Karpaty in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Karpaty (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Poltava's attack rating (0.65) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.89x) against SK Poltava's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
20%
5.13
25%
3.98
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.42
1.59
Karpaty xG
5.13
20%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
4%
25.17
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.59 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, SK Poltava have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 2W 3D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty's form line: 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Karpaty are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Poltava.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Poltava have posted 0.44 PPG from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
On the road, Karpaty have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Poltava are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.11 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and Karpaty in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 14L in their last 19 games (0.47 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.44 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SK Poltava or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Karpaty in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
1
Draws
1
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, Karpaty have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SK Poltava 0-4 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 44%, Karpaty 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SK Poltava) and 33% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Karpaty in 44%; SK Poltava have failed to score in 44% of games; Karpaty in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SK Poltava's recent games and 33% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and Karpaty tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.65 / defence 1.49 against Karpaty attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 68%, Karpaty 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.