Shakhtar Donetsk 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 23 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 9W 0D 1L at Arena Lviv — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at Arena Lviv than their overall form suggests.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Obolon'-Brovar's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 49% versus Obolon'-Brovar 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.43 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.421 / defence 1.024 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.720 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.165. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 36 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 72% | Draw 17% | Obolon'-Brovar 11%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Obolon'-Brovar 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 72% | Draw 17% | Obolon'-Brovar 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.43 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.421 / def 1.024 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.720 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Obolon'-Brovar xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Shakhtar Donetsk 4 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 72% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 2W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.42) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.72x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
72%
1.39
17%
6.01
11%
8.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.29
0.86
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
8.81
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
9%
11.36
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
100.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.86 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 25W 5D 5L from 35 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 16L across 35 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 13W 1D 3L from 17 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 29%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 25W 5D 5L in their last 35 games (2.29 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 13D 16L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.35 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 47%, Obolon'-Brovar 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 41% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 35% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 41% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.43 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.86 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.42 / defence 1.02 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 72% | Draw 17% | Obolon'-Brovar 11%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.