Ruh Lviv 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40%, yet in-form Vorskla Poltava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ruh Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena L'viv: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ruh Lviv register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Vorskla Poltava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 51% versus Vorskla Poltava 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 38% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.20 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.839 / defence 0.857 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.928 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.278. Data: 39 Ruh Lviv games / 40 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Vorskla Poltava 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vorskla Poltava (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ruh Lviv 70% | Vorskla Poltava 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.20 / Vorskla Poltava 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.839 / def 0.857 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.928 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Vorskla Poltava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.84x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.47
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.22
1.02
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.02 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 13D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.56 PPG from 39 outings (17W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 5W 9D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.41 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 13D 18L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 10D 12L in their last 39 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.26 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 58%, Vorskla Poltava 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Ruh Lviv) and 53% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ruh Lviv's games and 63% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 53% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 23, as Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.20 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 38%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.