Ruh Lviv 0-0 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Kolos Kovalivka travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Lviv — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kolos Kovalivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Kolos Kovalivka 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Kolos Kovalivka 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 2.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.497 / defence 0.784 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.917 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.159. Ruh Lviv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Ruh Lviv games / 37 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 67% | Draw 20% | Kolos Kovalivka 13%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Kolos Kovalivka 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 67% | Draw 20% | Kolos Kovalivka 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 2.14 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.497 / def 0.784 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.917 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 0 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 67% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (5 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 2 | Kolos Kovalivka 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.50) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.06
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.97
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
64.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.83 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 15D 6L from 36 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 15L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kolos Kovalivka heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 8D 2L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.75 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 15D 6L in their last 36 games (1.67 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.71 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 59%, Kolos Kovalivka 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ruh Lviv) and 29% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 41% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 8, as Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 2.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.50 / defence 0.78 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 67% | Draw 20% | Kolos Kovalivka 13%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.