Ruh Lviv 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena L'viv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 14 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena L'viv: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.00 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ruh Lviv 0W, Dynamo Kyiv 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 50% versus Dynamo Kyiv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 39% | Dynamo Kyiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.73 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.862 / defence 0.936 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.115 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.201. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Ruh Lviv games / 38 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 49%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.04. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 70% | Dynamo Kyiv 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.73 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.862 / def 0.936 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.115 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dynamo Kyiv xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 22% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.11x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
22%
4.62
30%
3.39
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.98
1.25
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.25 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 12D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (24W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 3W 8D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.50 points per game from 16 outings (13W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 1.94 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.06 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 56%, Dynamo Kyiv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 56%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 21, as Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.73 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.11 / defence 0.71, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 49%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 39%, Dynamo Kyiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (36 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.