Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Oleksandria face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Shakhtar Donetsk at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at KSK Nika this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shakhtar Donetsk have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Oleksandria.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 45% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 45% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.82 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.868 / defence 1.095 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.250 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.209. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Oleksandria games / 48 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 0.82 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.868 / def 1.095 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.250 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (9 meetings): Oleksandria 2W | Draws 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5W.
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.44
24%
4.11
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.47
1.65
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
4%
28.40
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.65 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 22W 12D 13L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 29W 13D 5L from 47 games, 2.13 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 11W 9D 2L from 22 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.34 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 29W 13D 5L in their last 47 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.95 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 41%, Shakhtar Donetsk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 36% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 41% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 36% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Oleksandria 0-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.82 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.65 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.25 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 18% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 45%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.