Oleksandria 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Shakhtar Donetsk at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at CSC Nika this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 2 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 51% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 44% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.95 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.920 / defence 1.062 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.152 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.297. Data: 46 Oleksandria games / 45 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.00. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Oleksandria 0.95 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.920 / def 1.062 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.152 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Oleksandria 0 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 20% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.92x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
20%
5.04
31%
3.26
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.54
1.59
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.04
20%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
4%
24.67
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.59 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 13W 18D 14L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 31W 10D 4L from 45 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 14W 6D 2L from 22 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.11 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 13W 18D 14L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 31W 10D 4L in their last 45 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.55 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 54%, Shakhtar Donetsk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 59% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Oleksandria's games and 64% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 59% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Oleksandria 0-3 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.95 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.59 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.