Oleksandria 2-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to CSC Nika. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ruh Lviv are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 4 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 52% versus Ruh Lviv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | Ruh Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.92 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.832 / defence 1.060 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.109 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.243. Data: 56 Oleksandria games / 56 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 23% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 49%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.04. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 40% | Ruh Lviv 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 23% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Oleksandria 0.92 / Ruh Lviv 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.832 / def 1.060 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.109 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ruh Lviv xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Oleksandria 2 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 23% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 4 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.83) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
23%
4.38
28%
3.52
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.38
1.46
Ruh Lviv xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.46 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 16W 22D 18L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 18W 22D 16L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.25 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 7D 11L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.25 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 16W 22D 18L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 22D 16L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.39 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oleksandria's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
7
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 46% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv finished level at 2-2 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.92 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.46 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 23% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 49%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Ruh Lviv 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.25 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.