Oleksandria vs Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 14 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Oleksandria against 0.90 for Chornomorets. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus Chornomorets 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 39% | Chornomorets 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.44 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.982 / defence 1.058 | Chornomorets attack 0.807 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 18 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 27%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Chornomorets 3.70. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 43% | Chornomorets 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 46% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Oleksandria 1.44 / Chornomorets 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.982 / def 1.058 | Chornomorets attack 0.807 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 14 March 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets part of?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 46% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Oleksandria and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oleksandria's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.81x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.78
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.48
1.04
Chornomorets xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.04 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.78 PPG from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.11 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 61%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Chornomorets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
3
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Chornomorets 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Oleksandria and 86% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Chornomorets in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Oleksandria's games and 71% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Oleksandria's matches and 86% of Chornomorets's.
Do Oleksandria and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 21, as Oleksandria and Chornomorets drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.44 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 46% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 27%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 39%, Chornomorets 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.