Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Obolon Arena plays host to Obolon'-Brovar versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Obolon'-Brovar's home record at Obolon Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.566 / defence 1.045 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.201. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.566 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Obolon'-Brovar games / 0 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 40%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Livyi Bereh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Livyi Bereh as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 / Livyi Bereh 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.566 / def 1.045 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Livyi Bereh xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 28% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Obolon'-Brovar home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.57) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.85x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.18
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.91
1.07
Livyi Bereh xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.07 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Pre-Season
Livyi Bereh
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.84 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.57 / defence 1.04 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 40%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Obolon'-Brovar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.