Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Obolon'-Brovar welcome Kryvbas KR to Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Kryvbas KR have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kryvbas KR are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kryvbas KR 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Kryvbas KR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 36% | Kryvbas KR 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Obolon'-Brovar surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Kryvbas KR have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.766 / defence 1.338 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.010 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.023. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 43 games and Kryvbas KR's last 42.

Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 48%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.28 | Draw 3.49 | Kryvbas KR 2.08. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 away games).

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