FC Kharkiv vs Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist: 4W 0D 4L from 8 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Lviv (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Kharkiv 0W, Lviv 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 39% versus Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.36 xG and Lviv 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.963 / defence 1.271 | Lviv attack 0.782 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Kharkiv games / 18 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 40% | Draw 26% | Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 50% | Lviv 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 40% | Draw 26% | Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.36 / Lviv 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.963 / def 1.271 | Lviv attack 0.782 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lviv xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Lviv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Lviv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 40% chance of winning, Lviv a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Lviv in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lviv's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.78x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.78
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Lviv xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.22 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 1D 11L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 0.94 for Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lviv's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Lviv in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Lviv away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Lviv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Lviv 0-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Lviv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 38% (Lviv).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 38% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Lviv tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lviv in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv and Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.36 xG and Lviv 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Lviv attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 40% | Draw 26% | Lviv 33%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.06 PPG, Lviv 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.