FC Kharkiv 2-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Kharkiv welcome Chornomorets to Stadion Livyi Bereh. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.20 PPG, Chornomorets 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Chornomorets and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 34% versus Chornomorets 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 37% | Chornomorets 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.16 xG and Chornomorets 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.945 / defence 1.019 | Chornomorets attack 1.122 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.187. Data: 41 FC Kharkiv games / 41 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 40% | Chornomorets 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.16 / Chornomorets 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.945 / def 1.019 | Chornomorets attack 1.122 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Chornomorets xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
FC Kharkiv 2 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 31% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.94) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.49
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.52
1.36
Chornomorets xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.36 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 17D 15L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (15W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.07 PPG, Chornomorets on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 17D 15L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Chornomorets away?
Chornomorets's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.20 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 40%, Chornomorets 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Kharkiv) and 60% (Chornomorets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 65% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 60% of Chornomorets's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Chornomorets 2-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.16 xG and Chornomorets 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Chornomorets attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 40%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 37%, Chornomorets 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.07 PPG, Chornomorets 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.